In these cases, the coin will eventually flip tails maybe directly after 2 or 4 heads in a row. Time and tries evens out probability to it's true value. But your brain can get the better of you if you let it. They're independent events and not related. Past results have nothing to do with future events when it comes to probability in cases like this. Red has the same chance to come again after 18 reds.as a black. Makes you want to bet on black next time, right? We have all seen long duration Red/Black runs. How about throwing it up 5 times, and get 4 heads in row? Is that going to keep that bee in your bonnet about the coin being rigged and now incorrect probability of 50/50? Of course not again.Įver seen a run of 18 Reds in a row on a legitimate roulette table? Sure. What if comes up heads both times, are ya going to say the coin is fake and has no tails? Of course not.
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